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李克强总理《中国经济的蓝图》

投资理财 / by: 传诗雷特 / 发布:2015年12月13日 / 57次阅读 / 暂无评论
标签:中国经济   / 最后修改时间: 2015-12-13 08:13:59

投资理财 / 2015年12月13日 / 57次阅读 / 标签:中国经济  


李克强总理《中国经济的蓝图》

李克强总理在在2015年末,最引发外界关注的是一篇文章。这篇文章名为《中国经济的蓝图》,署名发表在《经济学人》年刊《世界2016》上,文章不长,全文不过1400余字。但对于希望看到李克强在2016年进行宏观调控整体思路的人而言,文章字字珠玑,值得反复揣摩。

以下内容中文部分,来自本站的原创翻译。

 

China's economic blueprint

中国经济的蓝图

For the Chinese economy, 2016 is a year of reform, openness and international co-operation. These priorities may sound surprisingly familiar to China-watchers. Their potent combination has been instrumental in China’s growth story over decades. We are taking them further.

对于中国经济来说,2016年是一个改革,开发和国际合作的年份。这几个关键词看起来对中国观察者来说,异常熟悉。它们的组合效力在过去几十年中国成长的故事中一直发挥作用。我们将继续带着它们前进。

Given the size of China’s $10 trillion economy,  overdependence on investment and exports is not tenable. What is called for is not temporary fixes: my government has resisted the temptations of quantitative easing and competitive currency devaluation. Instead we choose structural reform. We are pushing through market reforms, to speed the transition to a sustainable growth model markedly more driven by innovation and consumption. Employment, income levels and the environment are all high on our list of priorities.

考虑到中国10万亿美元的经济规模,过度依赖于投资和出口是不合理的。我们要提倡的并不是短期的政策修复:我的政府已经抵住了量化宽松(quantitative easing)和竞争性的货币贬值。我们选择的是结构化改革。我们正在推进市场改革,加速向更多靠创新和消费的可持续增长模式转变。就业,收入水平,以及环境都是我们的重点领域。

We are combining myriad policy tools into two major drivers of growth. The first, essential to structural reform, highlights entrepreneurship and innovation. The second focuses on better provision of public goods and services―which in turn contributes to stronger demand and a higher quality of life.

我们将各种不同的政策工具组合用于两类主要的增长驱动力。第一,是结构改革,倡导企业家精神和创新。第二,聚焦在提供更好的公共产品和服务,公共产品和服务可以促进消费需求,并且提高人民生活水平。

It is all about striking a better balance between the state and the market by offering individuals, small and medium-sized companies as well as major corporations a more enabling environment for business development and innovation, thereby unlocking growth potential. A leaner government can play a better role as macroeconomic fine-tuner, regulator for fair competition, champion of the reform agenda and ultimate backstop when systemic risks threaten.

通过给个人,微小中企业,以及大型企业一个更加适合发展和创新的环境,来达到政府和市场间的更优平衡,进而释放增长潜力。一个轻型政府可以更好的充当宏观经济的调节器,公平竞争的规则制定者,改革的拥护者,以及出现系统性风险威胁时的最后支撑。

These efforts are already paying off. The services sector, accounting for half of China’s GDP, keeps widening its lead over manufacturing. Entrepreneurship and innovation are the new fashion. Over 10,000 new businesses are registered every day. Growth in high-tech industries is leading that of the industrial sector by a wide margin. Innovations in technology, business models and management keep widening the economic horizon in previously unimaginable ways.

这些努力已经开始出现效果。根据中国半年GDP统计数据,服务业持续领先并拉开与制造业的差距。创业创新成为新的时尚,每天有超过1万家新公司注册成立。高科技行业的增长扩大对在工业部分的领先优势。在技术,商业模式以及管理方面的创新,持续地,以之前无法想象的方式,推动经济的发展。

We are creating over 10m jobs a year and disposable-income growth is outstripping that of GDP. Consumption, already responsible for 60% of growth, keeps going strong and up-market. Take outbound tourism, for example: Chinese citizens made over 100m trips overseas in 2014, and the first half of 2015 saw year-on-year growth of 10%.

我们一年创造1000万个就业岗位,居民可支配收入的增速超过了GDP的增速。消费,已经占到增长的60%,而且还在高端消费市场还在继续提高占比。拿境外旅游举例,中国居民在2014年进行了1亿次旅游,在2015年上半年,我们已经看到了同比10%的增长。

In short, despite moderation in growth, the Chinese economy is moving in the desired direction of stronger domestic demand and innovation. One by-product is a fall in the relevance of indicators such as power consumption, rail-cargo volume and new bank credit in gauging economic performance. Yet this transition from “bigger is better” to “less is more” is a good thing. I would otherwise be worried whether the reforms were working as intended.

总而言之,虽然中国经济增加在放缓,中国经济正在向我们所期望的,更强的国内需求和创新这个方向前进。这种转变的一个副产品是一些测量经济表现的指数的相对滑落,比如电力消耗,铁路货运量,新增银行信贷。不过,从“越大越好”到“少就是多”这种转变是好事情。否则,我反而会担心改革是否产生了如期的效果。

Structural reform is not only about exploring new sources of growth, but also about making traditional industries more competitive. China’s massive industrial sector remains a vital part of our plan for growth. We are working on upgrading “Made in China” with “China Manufacturing 2025”, “Internet Plus” and other initiatives. We are deepening integration with the world economy with deregulation in many areas to improve access for foreign investments, not least in service sectors.

经济结构改革不仅仅是发掘新的增长点,同时也是要使传统产业更具竞争力。中国巨大的工业体系是我们增长计划的至关重要的一部分。我们正在从“中国制造”升级到“中国制造2025”,“互联网+”,以及一些其它新的计划。我们正在与世界经济进行深度整合,不仅仅在服务领域,在很多领域我们都在减少管制,增加外资投入。

Make no mistake. Competition is growing tougher as the Chinese market matures. But we are confident that China is a worthwhile market, a pivot of the global supply chain and a partner for the wider world market.

毫无疑问,随着中国市场的成熟,竞争会越来越激烈。但是我们相信中国是一个值得投入的市场,是全球供应链的支撑中心,是更大的国际市场的伙伴。

中国经济蓝图(NASA拍摄的中国夜景)

中国经济蓝图(NASA拍摄的中国夜景)

The best of all worlds

对所有世界最好的

This is not yet a world of plenty. Billions in developing countries are yet to benefit from large-scale industrialisation and proper infrastructure. The demand is enormous, but largely subdued for lack of proper funding, affordable equipment and technology.

我们的世界还不算富饶。几十亿发展中国家的人民正在受惠于大规模的工业生产和合适的基础设施。需求非常强烈,但是大部分却被缺少合适的资金,设备和技术所抑制。

This can be changed. On connectivity, we have the “Belt and Road” initiative. On industrialisation and urbanisation, we offer partnerships in industrial-capacity co-operation. Combining China’s manufacturing prowess with the cutting-edge technologies of the developed economies, we can, together, supply good equipment at good prices to the developing world, sustaining robust growth with supply-side innovation. If development for 1.3 billion Chinese has helped buoy world growth, imagine what such growth spurts for many more billions could do for the commodities market, manufacturing and many others.

这些可以被改变。在连通方面,我们有“一带一路”战略。在工业化和城镇化方面,我们提供工业能力合作的伙伴关系。发达国家最先进的技术,结合中国制造的强大优势,我们可以,一起携手,向发展中国家以好的价格提供好的设备,用供给侧的创新支撑稳健的增长。如果13亿中国人民创造的经济发展托起了世界经济增长,想象一下,这样的发展带来的更多亿的增加可以为商品市场,生产制造和其它领域做些什么。

Structural reform featuring entrepreneurship and innovation, greater openness and win-win international co-operation―these are our priorities for 2016 and beyond. This is our answer to the call for sustainable growth―a blueprint for sharing with the world China’s market opportunities and Chinese ingenuity.

结构性改革的特征在于创业和创新,更大的开放,以及国际合作的双赢。这些是我们2016年,以及更远的将来的重点,这也是我们给可持续发展的答案。这是一份与世界共享中国市场机遇与中国创新的蓝图。

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